Monday Night Football Pick Of the Week – Vikings @ Saints – Who Covers The Spread
Monday Night Football is back in New Orleans this week and the Saints (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) will be hosting the Vikings. Las Vegas sportsbooks opened the Saints as 4-point favorites with the total set at 45.5. By this morning, most lines had come down to New Orleans -3, but the total has gone up to 46.
The Saints have won both of their games this season at the Superdome; the season opener against the Bucs as 3-point favorites and week 4 against the 49ers as 4.5-point favorites. The over is 3-1 when the Saints are on the board.
Colston and Shockey are out of the lineup, but Drew Brees has proven that he can still throw 300+ yard games without them. Deuce McAllister is back after tearing his ACL last season. McAllister rushed for 73 yards on 20 carries and had a score in his last game.
Minnesota (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is coming off a 30-17 road loss to Tennessee as a 3.5-point dog. Tavaris Jackson was pulled and Gus Ferotte got the start. Ferotte threw for 263 yards, but failed to record a touchdown pass. Adrian Peterson ran for 80 yards and 2 TDs on 18 carries. NFL teams are now focused on Adrian Peterson and it shows. Peterson has been held to less than 100 yards in his last two games. That could change tonight as the Saints, 20th in the league against the run, are giving up 122.1 yards per game. The Saints are 27th in total defense.
While the Vikings deal with their QB issues, the Saints have the league’s most effective QB. Brees has thrown for 1,343 yards, completed 72.3 percent of his passes and has an 8-4 TD to interception ratio. Not bad for a guy with a supposed bum shoulder.
Trends:
Over the last few seasons, New Orleans is 5-16 against the spread as a home favorites, but cashed as home favorites both times in 2008. Minnesota has lost both of its road games SU and ATS in 2008. The Vikings are 6-7-2 ATS in their last 15 games as road underdogs. The over is 3-0-1 overall for the Saints, 1-0-1 in their home games. The over is 2-0 in both of the Vikings’ road games.
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