As the NFL football season nears its close for the 2008-2009 season, the pros at FiveStarPick.com feel certain that Super Bowl XLIII will be more exciting than the sports writers, pundits and commentators would lead you to believe.  Las Vegas sportsbooks are holding the line for Pittsburgh at -7 with the total fluctuating between 46.5 and 47.  The world is talking about the usual suspects like Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner, Rothlisberger, Parker and Ward, but sometimes it’s the lesser know factors that can make a difference in determining the “against the spread” winner in a Superbowl.

Quarterbacks…

Over the last 42 years of the Super Bowl, only 15 quarterbacks had passer ratings better than 100 during the regular season and into the playoffs.  Most recently, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0) both surpassed this stat.  This season, Roethlisberger had a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner had a passer rating of 111.9.  If you are only looking at the skill position of the Quarterback and the ability to make throws under pressure, you have to give the edge to the Arizona Cardinals.

Pass Rush…

The question we need answered here is which team will be able to apply the most pressure to the opposing quarterback.  When you start thinking about who will have the most sacks, you automatically think the Steelers, right?  The media has been sucking on the left teet of the Steeler defense for so long, that you would never know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2.  Not a huge difference, but Pittsburgh and its defense have forever been portrayed as the best team in the league at rushing the passer.  Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks.  In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS.  After studying the sack stats, these two teams appear to be evenly matched.

Does Defense Win Championships…

In the last 4 Super Bowls this statement has rung true as all four Super Bowl winners have allowed an average of only 15.5 ppg.  In the last eight Super Bowls,  winners have allowed an average of only 17 ppg.  And if you look back at all the Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 out of 42 times.

Now, when we talk about offense, the winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times.  Having said that, the last Super Bowl Champion to score 30 points or more in this game was in Super Bowl XXVIII when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills, 30-14.  If you look to history, defenses are in fact what has won the majority of Super Bowls. We give the defensive edge to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Who Is Better In The Red Zone…

Many bettors fail to study REDZONE performance when handicapping the Super Bowl.  They look at yardage and points, but fail to see where these numbers come from.  Red zone scoring is where games are won and lost and Arizona is only 9th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent per trip. The Steelers aren’t much better at 15th in the league with a 55.1 scoring percentage.  Where the difference lies in these stats is that the Cardinals have scored 72 more red zone points that the Steelers while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Defensively, the Steelers were #1 in the NFL allowing red zone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time.  Arizona allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was 27th in the NFL.  Arizona allowed 124 more points in the red zone than their Super Bowl opponent.  We give the red zone advantage to Pittsburgh.

Does Field Position Matter… 

Field position is one of those stats that is pretty easy to figure out.  A shorter field makes it easier on the offense to score points and harder on the defense to defend against points being scored.  For this reason, special teams always play an important role in a Super Bowl.  These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st out of 32 in net punting and Pittsburgh finished 29th.  The Cardinals however have the edge in punt returning, gaining 7.2 yards per return while the Steelers gain an average of 6.0 yards per return, 31st in the NFL.  We believe the Cardinals will have the edge in field position with JJ Arrington returning kicks on Sunday. 

The factors mentioned above represent a small look into the analysis we put into a game prior to providing our members with our picks to win the Super Bowl.  So who covers the spread in Superbowl XLIII?  Step up your game, become a member of our family and get the answer.  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008 and are poised for another record year.  Join today and start winning tonight!

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com

FiveStarPick.com is working round the clock to gather information on Super Bowl XLIII.  We are analyzing stats, trends, player matchups and injury reports to give our members the best chance to cover against the spread.  Las Vegas sportsbooks currently have the Steelers as 7-point favorites with the total at 46.5.  Today we will be providing you with an interesting article from the Dallas Star that might give you insight to the irony of this Super Bowl Matchup.  The pros at FiveStarPick.com will be previewing this matchup for you later in the week.  Here is what the article said…

“When Bill Cowher walked away from the Pittsburgh Steelers after the 2006 season, there was a scramble among his assistants to replace him.

The Steelers interviewed offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt and offensive line coach Russ Grimm for the vacancy. The Steelers wound up offering the position to Grimm, then retracted it and, in the span of 24 hours, named an outsider, Mike Tomlin, as their head coach.

Having been passed over by the Steelers, Whisenhunt and Grimm knew they couldn’t – and wouldn’t – stay in Pittsburgh. Whisenhunt became the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals that off-season and took Grimm with him.

Imagine the culture shock: Whisenhunt and Grimm were leaving a franchise that annually played in January for a franchise that was annually out of contention by Thanksgiving.

The Steelers share the NFL record with five Lombardi Trophies. The Cardinals are at the other end of the spectrum with a 61-year championship drought, the longest in the league.

But in two years, Whisenhunt has done what few thought possible, capturing an NFC championship with the Cardinals. Standing in the way of Arizona’s first NFL championship since 1947 – his former team, the Steelers.

The Cardinals toppled the Philadelphia Eagles, 32-25, in the NFC title game Sunday, and the Steelers upended the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14, in the AFC title game.

Even before the AFC game began Sunday, Whisenhunt expressed a desire to play the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

“The reason I’m here is because of my time with Pittsburgh,” Whisenhunt said. “I’m very grateful for that.”

The Steelers won four Super Bowls in the 1970s to capture team of the decade acclaim, then played in a Super Bowl in the 1990s and another this decade. They lost to the Cowboys in 1996 and beat the Seattle Seahawks in 2006. Whisenhunt and Grimm both have rings in their safe-deposit boxes commemorating that championship season.

Arizona, on the other hand, has won more playoff games this month (three) than in it had in the franchise’s first 87 years (two). The Cardinals are the most unlikely Super Bowl team since the 1979 Los Angeles Rams, who were the last nine-win team to advance to the NFL title game.

Like the Cardinals, the 1979 Rams won the NFC West with a 9-7 record. Like the Cardinals, the Rams rode a string of upsets to the Super Bowl, winning on the road at Dallas and Tampa Bay.

The Cardinals were underdogs in playoff victories this month over Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia. And like those Rams, the Cardinals will face the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

Since moving to Arizona from St. Louis in 1988, the Cardinals have managed two winning seasons, finishing 9-7 in 1998 and 2008. The Cardinals have nine last-place finishes in Arizona.

“I just want to say the words ‘Arizona Cardinals’ and ‘Super Bowl’ in the same sentence,” said Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner after his four-touchdown pass performance against the Eagles. “I like the way that sounds.”

During that 21-year stretch, the Steelers have won nine division titles and qualified for the playoffs 11 times. Now these two teams square off for NFL supremacy. The Cardinals will attempt to become the first nine-victory team to capture a Super Bowl since the 1967 Green Bay Packers (9-4-1).

The two conference champions bring contrasting styles to the Super Bowl.

The Cardinals finished fourth in the NFL in offense and second in passing. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald all were selected to start in the Pro Bowl.

The Steelers led the NFL in defense for the third time in five seasons. Pittsburgh allowed the fewest yards and points this season and also led the NFL in pass defense. James Harrison was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and he’ll join fellow linebacker James Farrior and safety Troy Polamalu at the Pro Bowl.

But keep an eye on the sidelines in the Super Bowl. Whisenhunt and Grimm have something to prove to their former employer.”

So who covers the spread in Super Bowl XLIII?  Step up your game, become a member of our family and get the answer.  Why not try our service out for 2-days and see if our talent for picking winners exceeds your expectations?  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008.

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com

FiveStarPick.com is coming off a 3-1 ATS Divsional Playoff record and looks forward to this weekends line-up of games.  The focus of this preview is the matchup between Arizona (11-7 straight up, 11-7 against the spread) and Philadelphia (11-6-1 SU, 12-6 ATS).  The Cardinals have home field advantage and will enjoy a closed roof over University of Phoenix Stadium.

The Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner is a former Superbowl champion and will definately be a factor in these benign conditions.  He is 7-2 over his career in the postseason and has a 63% completion percentage with 2,712 yards, 19 touchdowns and a mere 12 interceptions. The Eagles are currently listed as 4-point visiting favorites, with the total set at 47.5.  But it will be turnovers that will make the differnce on Sunday.  After pummelling the Panthers last week, the Cardinals now have a +7 turnover ratio in the playoffs. The Eagles, on the other hand are at +1.

Arizona’s defense has improved dramatically in the post season.  Prior to the playoffs, the Cards gave up over 35 PPG.  In the playoffs, they have only allowed 19.3 PPG.  This tenacious ‘D’ has helped the Cards cover their last three games ATS.

The Arizona offese has scored less than 29 points at home only once this season and when Arizona has scored 30 or more points, the team has gone 8-1 SU and ATS.

Philly is 6-1 SU and ATS since McNabb was benched in Baltimore in Week 12.  Since then, the Eagles have busted up their opponents with 27.7 PPG and only relinquished 12 PPG to their opponents.  This will be the  Eagles 3rd road game in a row and one that will require the Eagles to travel across the country.  The birds have gone 2-0 SU and ATS this season out west beating San Francisco in Week 6 and Seattle in Week 9.

Here is an interesting trend to ponder…teams that knock off the defending Super Bowl Champs the week before are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS the following week.

Now let’s talk about past performances.  In one of his best games of the season, McNabb passed for 260 yards and 4 TDs beating Arizona 48-20 back on Thankgiving Day.  RB Brian Westbrook, added 110 rushing yards and 2 scores of his own.  But Westbrook reinjured his swollen left knee in the win over the Giants.  The Eagles are 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings versus Arizona.

So who covers the spread in the NFC Championship Game?  It’s time to step up your game, become a member of our family and find out.  Why not try our service out for 2-days and see if our talent for picking winners exceeds your expectations?  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008.

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com

Who covers the spread in tonight’s game between the San Francisco 49rs and the Arizona Cardinals?  Why not let FiveStarPick.com help you with the answer today?  Aren’t you tired of getting cold called by services that tell you about their 750,000 star play that’s a guaranteed winner?  Here is a bit of advice…NOTHING is guaranteed when you are betting on sports!  These so called “handicappers” call 500 people on a Saturday morning and give them all a free play; 250 people will get Arizona -9 and 250 will get San Fran +9.  After the game ends, they call back the 250 people who won and pitch them on charging thousands of dollars to their credit cards for more guaranteed winners.  FiveStarPick.com is not your typical sports handicapping service.  We care about our members and we live and die on every play. Why?  Because we are moving thousands of dollars of our own money on the same plays we give you. Gambling on sports is how we make our living.  Do we win every play?  Absolutely not and we will never pretend to.  Our plays are always posted for the world to see, including our losing streaks. But by the end of the year we always seem to have a few hundred thousand dollars of the sportsbook’s money in our casino account.  Let us try and do the same for you.  Read below for our breakdown of tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown.  

If Arizona (5-3 straight up, 6-2 against the spread) can win tonight, it will increase its division lead to 4 games and potentially seal the deal for the division title.  Las Vegas sportsbooks opened the Cardinals as 11-point favorites with the total set at 48.  This morning the line moved down to 9.5-points and the total adjusted down to 47. 

The Cardinals have won three of their last four games and cashing ATS in all four outings. Last week, the Cards crushed St. Louis 34-13 as 3-point road favorites.  Hightower rushed for 109 yards on 22 carries, including a 30-yard TD run. Kurt Warner was on fire passing for 342 yards, 2 TDs and no INTs.  Anquan Boldin is back to 100% and Larry Fitzgerald had 6 catches for 81 yards.

San Francisco (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) is on a downward spiral losing its last 5 games both SU and ATS. The 49ers fired head coach Mike Nolan and replaced him with Hall of Fame linebacker Mike Singletary.  Not much changed in Singletary’s first game as San Francisco lost 34-13 to Seattle as 5-point home favorites.  After the game, Singletary pulled his pants down in front of the team to let his team know that they were getting their ass kicked. No one knows how the 49ers will respond to Singletary. Singletary is turning to back up QB Shaun Hill and benching J.T. O’Sullivan.  Former University of Miami RB Frank Gore has rushed for 629 yards and 4 TDs this season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.  Gore might be the only bright spot on this 49rs offense. 

Now let’s talk trends.  Back in Week 1, Arizona won 23-13 as a 2-point road favorites. The 36 combined points fell under the 42-point closing total. The over is 22-8 in Arizona’s last 30 games. The over is 3-0 in the Cardinals home games this season.  Arizona is 3-0 both SU and ATS at home this year.   San Francisco is 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road in 2008.

Try our service out for 2-days and see if our talent for picking winners exceeds your expectations.  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Join today and start winning tonight.

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com

It’s Week 2 in the NFL and everyone is looking forward to the Monday Night Football matchup between two of the NFL’s top teams.  Both the Eagles and the Cowboys are coming off lopsided wins in Week 1, and with all the T.O./Donovan drama leading up to this game, “you betta get yo popcone ready cuz its gonna be sho.”

Las Vegas sportsbooks have opened Dallas (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 47.5. Philadelphia (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) crushed the Rams last week 38-3 as a 9-point favorite. Donovan McNabb completed 21-of-33 passes for 361 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Desean Jackson had 6 catches for 106 yards and Greg Lewis had 5 catches for 104 yards. Hank Baskett had 2 catches that totaled 102 yards, including a 90-yard TD catch in the 2nd Quarter.

In Dallas’ opener, they manhandled Cleveland 28-10 as a 6.5-point favorite. Tony Romo threw for 321 yards and 1 TD; a 35-yard TD pass to Terrell Owens.  Owens had 5 catches for 87 yards, TE Jason Witten had 6 catches for 96 yards and WR Patrick Crayton snagged 6 catches for 82 yards. RB Marion Barber rushed for 80 yards and 2 TDs, while the rookie Felix Jones ran for 62 yards and 1 TD on 9 carries.

Philadelphia was the quintessential road underdog last season, cashing in all 4 outings. The Eagles won 3 of those games outright only losing to the Patriots in a 31-28 Sunday night nail-biter.

FiveStarPick.com loves to handicap the NFL.  It is our specialty and we have been steadily getting more proficient every year since we started in the business in 1990.  We cannot believe that was 18 years ago.  Time flies when you’re making money.  Our membership has jumped from 600 off-season members to over 1900 this football season and it’s for one reason and one reason only…we win!  We are the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net and we will never give you a play that we are not heavily on ourselves.  As a matter of fact, our NFL Picks are so strong that they can move the line up to a full point within seconds of being published to our members.  It’s time to come down off the fence and join for 1 year.  A one year membership is only $99.00 and it will pay for itself in the 1st week.  We are nearly 65% against the spread in 2008 and our forte, College and NFL Football Picks, are just beginning.  You owe it to yourself to discover the benefits of membership.  Join today and start winning tonight.

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com