FiveStarPick.com is coming off a 1-1 against the spread Sunday for our members in the NFL as the Miami Dolphins covered the 11-point spread, but neither team could score points in the 4th quarter and the combined 44-points did not eclipse our 46-point Over play. Tonight is Monday Night football and The World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are traveling to Denver to take on the hot Denver Broncos.  Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Steelers as 3-point road favorites with a total of 40.

The Broncos (6-1 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) suffered their first loss last Sunday, 30-7, to the Ravens as a four-point road underdog.  Denver’s record is not getting much respect in the world of sports betting and we can certainly understand why.  The Broncos are 20th in the NFL in scoring offense (20.0 points per game), 17th in passing offense (231.0 yards per game) and 11th in running the ball (123.1 YPG).  Depsite the avergae offensive numbers, Kyle Orton has been very good in Denver so far this season. He’s 12th among all quarterbacks with a 95.5 passer rating and has touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:1.  Any NFL team would be happy to have a QB that manages turnovers like Orton.

Denver’s defense is what’s winning games for them this year. The Broncos have the second best scoring defense in the league (13.7 PPG), they are eighth against the pass (180.6 YPG) and third defending the run (86.1 YPG). The Broncos also have a mere 23 sacks this season.

The Broncos will need all their defensive prowess if they want to take down Pittsburgh (5-2 straight up, 2-5 against the spread). The Steelers are playing much better recently, winning four straight after dropping their second and third games of the season.

Pittsburgh has changed their gameplan recently by taking the ball more to the air, and less to the ground.  The Steelers are averaging 295.4 passing YPG in 2009 to rank 3rd in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger has completed 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,062 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Steelers still have a dominant defense. They are seventh in scoring defense (18.4 PPG) and second overall against the run (80.3 YPG).  Yet the secondary has had its troubles.  Pittsburgh has allowed 214.4 passing YPG in 2009; they were the best pass defense in 2008, allowing only 156.9 YPG through the air.

The Broncos have been a home dog twice already this season, winning outright both times. The Broncos are +130 on the money line tonight (risk $100 to win $130). This money line does not seem to add up to the pointspread. And that’s because bettors are heavy on the dog moneyline and heavy on the favorite pointspread.

Now let’s talk trends.  Pittsburgh is 7-7 straight up in their last two seasons as a road favorite, but only 4-10 against the spread. In 2009, the favorite has gone 4-2 against the spread on Monday night. Denver is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in its last three Monday Night Football games that they were a home underdog. Eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the Broncos and Steelers have seen the ‘over’ cash tickets.

This game means the world to the Steelers as they are right in the thick of the AFC North hunt, but Denver’s world doesn’t end should they suffer a setback on Monday night.  A loss for the Broncos will keep them in first place, but by only one game against the Chargers.

So who covers the spread in tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup?  It’s very easy to find out.  Try FiveStarPick.com tonight for just ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking college and pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business who documents wins and losses and displays them on our homepage for all to witness.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

Well…it couldn’t last forever. After a 14-1 against the spread run in our last 15, we got the crap kicked out of us going 0-2 against the spread yesterday in the NFL. We take losses personally around here, so I can promise you that we are focused on Monday Night Football. Tonight the Broncos (5-0 straight up, 5-0 against the spread) travel down to play San Diego (2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) in an AFC West clash. Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Chargers as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 44.

During the Phillip Rivers era, the Chargers have been a favorite to win the AFC almost every year. But another slow start has made most touters questioning their game.  The Bolts are giving up an average of 365 yards per game, including 151 YPG on the ground.  In addition, opponents are averaging 20-plus points a game, twice allowing 30-plus.  Luckily for the Chargers, the Broncos don’t have a great offense (19.8 PPG, 376 YPG), but they do have the league’s best defense (8.6 PPG, 252 YPG).  The Broncos defense held Cincinnati to 7, Dallas to 10 and New England to 17, but they will face a balanced offensive attack tonight as the Chargers are averaging 25.3 PPG and 349 YPG. Quarterback Philip Rivers has passed for 1,245 yards and 6 TDs this year and Sproles and Tomlinson will be very tough to defend.

The Broncos have lost five of their last six games against San Diego. Their only win was Week 2 last season when Ed Hochuli’s blew that last minute call in the end zone and the Broncos won 39-38 in mile high stadium. During this six-game stretch, San Diego has posted scoring totals of 52, 38, 23, 41, 48 and 35 for an average of 39.5 PPG.

A lot has happened since last year as the Broncos fired head coach Mike Shanahan and traded All-Pro quarterback Jay Cutler to Chicago. Their two replacements, Josh McDaniels and Kyle Orton, have given the Mile High City some hope. Orton has passed for 1,236 yards and 7 touchdowns on the season. He has thrown only 1 INT this year and it came on a hail-mary attempt in the first half of last week’s 20-17 overtime victory against the Patriots.

So who covers the spread in tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup?  It’s very easy to find out.  Try FiveStarPick.com tonight for just ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking college and pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business who documents wins and losses and displays them on our homepage for all to witness.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com