The pros at FiveStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winner of Super Bowl XLV.  The Greenbay Packers are favored by 3-points over the Pittsburgh Steelers with a total of 45.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The Super Bowl winner has averaged 146.8 yards per game through the first 44 big games while the losing team has averaged just 86.1 YPG. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at YPC averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over 3.96 YPC while the losing team has averaged 3.65 YPC.

The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only eight times in the history of the big game, with this surprisingly taking place the last three years. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 points per games however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.

Fast forward to this season and you’ll see that the Steelers averaged 120.3 YPG during the regular season which was 11th in the league while their 4.1 YPC average was good for a tie for 18th. When you think of Pittsburgh, you think of smash-mouth football but this season’s YPG average was their highest since 2007. It was relatively the same in home/road games but against the NFC, it averaged 141.8 YPG on 4.8 YPC compared to 113.1 YPG on 3.8 YPC against the AFC. The problem was in the redzone where they were just 110-210 (1.9 YPC).

The Packers style on offense is much different and that showed in the rushing numbers. Green Bay averaged only 100.4 YPG on 3.8 YPC, which were 24th and tied for 25th respectively. Green Bay actually averaged more yards per attempt in losses than in wins (4.3 YPC to 3.6 YPC) but the real surprise is the team breakdown. The Packers gained 157 yards on 17 carries against the Redskins this season. They averaged more than 3.9 YPC against only one other team (Philadelphia – 4.0 YPC).

Green Bay was pretty solid defensively against the run as it allowed 114.9 YPG during the regular season which was 18th in the NFL. However, the Packers allowed 4.7 YPC which was tied for 28th in the NFL. That seems like it could be a real problem. Similar to prior years, the Pittsburgh rushing defense was extremely tough to move as the Steelers were the best in the NFL as they allowed only 62.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC. Based on the regular season, Pittsburgh has a clear edge on that side of the ball.

The breakout of running back James Starks against the Eagles has given the Packers the much needed postseason running game. Or has it? Starks has been very average since that game and the Packers are averaging fewer yards per attempt in the postseason than they did in the regular season (3.7 YPC to 3.8 YPC). Pittsburgh is averaging a half-yard more in the playoffs than Green Bay (118.5 YPG to 118 YPG) but is averaging only 3.2 YPC. Facing the Ravens and Jets (5th and 3rd in rushing defense) will do that to a team however.

In the regular season and postseason combined, Pittsburgh gains more YPC than it allows (4.0 YPC to 3.0 YPC), gains more YPC than Green Bay (4.0 YPC to 3.8 YPC) and allows less YPC than Green Bay (3.0 YPC to 4.5 YPC). That is fairly significant. Based on everything above, we have to give the edge to the Steelers in the rushing game but remember last Super Bowl when the Colts won the rushing battle but lost the game so there definitely are exceptions. Will it be another exception this year or will the trend hold true?

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winner in the AFC Championship.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 4-points over the New York Jets with a total of 38.5.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The Steelers are no stranger to this game, participating in the AFC Championship for the fourth time since 2004. On the other side, if the Jets win, they will go to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1969 when Broadway Joe helped upset the Colts, 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The Jets have had some mojo working knocking out Indianapolis and New England in the first two rounds.  Cromartie’s big kickoff return following the go-ahead field goal by Indianapolis gave the Jets excellent field position, which led to a 32-yard field goal at the gun.

All the talk heading into the Divisional Playoff tilt was coming from the Jets’ side as they looked to avenge a 45-3 slaughter in Foxboro on Monday night in Week 13. New York responded to the challenge by eliminating New England, 28-21 as 9-point underdogs capturing its fourth road playoff win in five tries. Mark Sanchez overcame two horrible efforts his previous two starts at Gillette Stadium with a three-touchdown romp as the Pats allowed their most points since Week 11 against Indianapolis (28).

The Steelers came back to shock the Ravens, 31-24 as 3.5-point favorites for the second time this season. Ben Roethlisberger threw two second-half touchdowns, while Rashard Mendenhall’s two-yard plunge with 90 seconds left capped the comeback and gave Pittsburgh its third straight home playoff win. The game went ‘over’ the total of 37.5, as the two teams combined for just 389 yards.

These teams just played each other a little over a month ago at Heinz Field as the Jets upended Steelers, 22-17 as 3.5-point ‘dogs. Troy Polamalu was out with a sprained ankle suffered the week before against Cincinnati as the Steelers’ defense limited the Jets to 277 yards of offense. Sanchez’s bootleg touchdown run on fourth down helped tie the game at 17-17, followed by a Folk field goal and late safety to put the win away for the Jets.

All three of Pittsburgh’s home losses this season came against playoff teams (Jets, Patriots, and Ravens), while owning a 6-3 Against The Spread mark at home. The Jets continue to cash at a frantic rate on the road, putting together a 7-3 Against The Spread record on the highway, including a 6-2 Against The Spread record as an away underdog. Under Ryan, the Jets have gone 14-7 Against The Spread on the road as opposed to 8-8 Against The Spread at home over the last two seasons.

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winners in the AFC Divisional Playoffs.  The New England Patriots are favored by 9-points over the New York Jets with a total of 44.5.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The smack has been thick this week leading up to the third round between these two teams. Actually, most of the trash talk has come from the Jets’ side, as New York tries for its fourth road playoff win in five tries after last Saturday’s last-second victory over the Colts.

Nick Folk’s 32-yard field goal as time expired gave the Jets a 17-16 victory over the Colts, avenging last season’s AFC Championship loss. LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for two touchdowns, while Mark Sanchez had limited mistakes to give the Jets another try at the Patriots.

New England has been sitting pretty over the last two months with eight consecutive wins; and their offense has delivered at least 31 points in each of the last eight victories, while knocking off the Steelers, Colts, Packers, Bears, and Jets during that stretch.

The Patriots’ 45-3 December smack down of the Jets on Monday night in Foxboro proved once again the Patriots won’t let up if given the opportunity. Especially agains a Rex Ryan team.  New England jumped out to a quick 17-0 first quarter lead, then Tom Brady went to work picking apart the Jets’ secondary with four touchdown passes. The Patriots’ defense confused Sanchez all night, while intercepting him three times to easily cover as four-point home favorites.

The Patriots are 9-1 on the ‘over’ the last 10 games, while allowing four of their last five opponents to seven points or less. For a team that finished the regular season at 14-2, New England was listed as a nine-point favorite only three times, including twice against the hapless Bills. The only other occurrence as a long favorite came in Week 15 when the Packers played without Aaron Rodgers and the Pats escaped with a 31-27 victory as 14-point favorite.

The low-scoring Wild Card win over the Colts was the first ‘under’ on the road for the Jets this season in nine tries. New York is a profitable 7-5 Against The Spread as a road underdog, but two of those losses have come in blowout fashion in Foxboro. Since a five-game Against The Spread winning streak through September and October, the Jets are just 5-6 Against The Spread, while going 1-4 Against The Spread off a cover the last two months.

The total is set between 44 and 44 ½, with temperatures hovering in the high 20’s and low 30’s around gametime. Things get underway at 4:30 PM EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised nationally on CBS.

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

Congratulations to all our members on another solid win yesterday as the Chicago Bulls crushed the Indiana Pacers on the road as a 1-point favorite.  Today, the pros at FivStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winners in the NFL Divisional Playoffs.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 3-points over the Baltimore Ravens with a total of 37.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The Ravens made it to the second round of the playoffs for the third straight season following a 30-7 blowout of the Chiefs (a FiveStarPick.com winner) as three-point road favorites. Now the task for the Ravens is to avenge a Week 13 home loss to the Steelers.

Pittsburgh received a first-round bye and a home game in the second round with a 41-9 clubbing of Cleveland in Week 17. The Steelers finished the season winning six of their last seven games, including a 13-10 comeback victory at Baltimore in early December. Pittsburgh cashed in when Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass to Isaac Redman with three minutes remaining to give the Steelers an outright victory as three-point dogs.

The Ravens won their fifth straight at Kansas City, including their fourth consecutive road win. Flacco threw for 265 yards and two touchdowns, while Baltimore’s defense held the Chiefs to just 161 yards of offense. Kansas City turned the ball over three times and Dwayne Bowe, the former LSU star, never made a catch.

Pittsburgh finished the regular season at 5-3 Against The Spread at home, as all three losses came to the other three playoff teams remaining in the AFC. The closest defeat came to the Ravens, while falling by 13 to the Patriots (Week 10) and five to the Jets (Week 15). Polamalu is expected to play this week after missing two of the final three regular season games with an Achilles’ injury.

The total remains at 37 across the board, as snow is expected this weekend in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the low 30’s. The game kicks off at 4:30 PM EST and will be televised on CBS.

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick are excited about tonight’s Monday Night Football plays as the Green Bay Packers lace em up on the road at the Chicago Bears.  Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Packers as 3-point road favorties with a total of 46.5.  We think this line is DEAD WRONG.

Eight teams entered Week 3 with 2-0 records and four of them were handed losses on Sunday. Tonight from Soldier Field, one more club will join that group as Chicago (1-1 against the spread) welcomes their rival Green Bay (2-0 Against The Spread) in a NFC North battle.

The Bears received a questionable win over Detroit (19-14) in Week 1 when Calvin Johnson’s late score for the Lions was reversed. Despite the lucky victory, Chicago went on the road the very next week and stunned Dallas 27-20 as a seven-point underdog. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (649 yards, 5 TDs) seems more relaxed so far and he only has one interception through two games, after tossing 26 last year.

Defensively, Smith’s squad has also looked sharp. The unit has only allowed 289 YPG and they’ve forced six turnovers. With all due respect to the Lions and Cowboys, the Packers’ offense is averaging a league best 30.5 points per game and will be a much bigger test for the Bears tonight. Chicago picked up defensive end Julius Peppers in the offseason to bolster its pass rush but the defense only has two sacks after two games.

Underdogs posted a 10-5 Against The Spread record on Sunday and that included outright home ‘dog wins by Kansas City (+3), St. Louis (+4.5) and Seattle (+4).

Can Chicago join the mix and improve to 3-0 like Pittsburgh and Kansas City? Or will the Bears get exposed and look like the Texans and Buccaneers did yesterday? We’d include the Saints and Dolphins in that mix, but the pair played decent plus they lost to legit teams in the Falcons and Jets respectively.

While those numbers are telling, keep in mind that Chicago has played well on MNF under Lovie, going 4-1 in five appearances. Plus, the Packers are just 3-8 in their last 11 under the MNF lights.

The total for tonight is hovering between 45 and 46 and like most other primetime affairs, bettors should expect it to rise by kickoff. Green Bay has shown that it can score (34, 27) this season, but the ‘under’ has still produced a 2-0 mark. The Bears have a 1-1 total record.

Green Bay has gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings against Chicago, which includes last year’s sweep (21-14, 21-15). All four games went ‘under’ the number. It should also be noted that Rodgers has been the starting QB for the Packers in all four of these affairs and ironically the lone loss (17-20, OT) came in 2008 at Soldier Field, which was on a Monday as well.

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend, injury report and weather forcast on this game to provide our members with a winning play.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking college and pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com