As the NFL football season nears its close for the 2008-2009 season, the pros at FiveStarPick.com feel certain that Super Bowl XLIII will be more exciting than the sports writers, pundits and commentators would lead you to believe.  Las Vegas sportsbooks are holding the line for Pittsburgh at -7 with the total fluctuating between 46.5 and 47.  The world is talking about the usual suspects like Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner, Rothlisberger, Parker and Ward, but sometimes it’s the lesser know factors that can make a difference in determining the “against the spread” winner in a Superbowl.

Quarterbacks…

Over the last 42 years of the Super Bowl, only 15 quarterbacks had passer ratings better than 100 during the regular season and into the playoffs.  Most recently, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0) both surpassed this stat.  This season, Roethlisberger had a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner had a passer rating of 111.9.  If you are only looking at the skill position of the Quarterback and the ability to make throws under pressure, you have to give the edge to the Arizona Cardinals.

Pass Rush…

The question we need answered here is which team will be able to apply the most pressure to the opposing quarterback.  When you start thinking about who will have the most sacks, you automatically think the Steelers, right?  The media has been sucking on the left teet of the Steeler defense for so long, that you would never know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2.  Not a huge difference, but Pittsburgh and its defense have forever been portrayed as the best team in the league at rushing the passer.  Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks.  In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS.  After studying the sack stats, these two teams appear to be evenly matched.

Does Defense Win Championships…

In the last 4 Super Bowls this statement has rung true as all four Super Bowl winners have allowed an average of only 15.5 ppg.  In the last eight Super Bowls,  winners have allowed an average of only 17 ppg.  And if you look back at all the Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 out of 42 times.

Now, when we talk about offense, the winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times.  Having said that, the last Super Bowl Champion to score 30 points or more in this game was in Super Bowl XXVIII when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills, 30-14.  If you look to history, defenses are in fact what has won the majority of Super Bowls. We give the defensive edge to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Who Is Better In The Red Zone…

Many bettors fail to study REDZONE performance when handicapping the Super Bowl.  They look at yardage and points, but fail to see where these numbers come from.  Red zone scoring is where games are won and lost and Arizona is only 9th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent per trip. The Steelers aren’t much better at 15th in the league with a 55.1 scoring percentage.  Where the difference lies in these stats is that the Cardinals have scored 72 more red zone points that the Steelers while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Defensively, the Steelers were #1 in the NFL allowing red zone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time.  Arizona allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was 27th in the NFL.  Arizona allowed 124 more points in the red zone than their Super Bowl opponent.  We give the red zone advantage to Pittsburgh.

Does Field Position Matter… 

Field position is one of those stats that is pretty easy to figure out.  A shorter field makes it easier on the offense to score points and harder on the defense to defend against points being scored.  For this reason, special teams always play an important role in a Super Bowl.  These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st out of 32 in net punting and Pittsburgh finished 29th.  The Cardinals however have the edge in punt returning, gaining 7.2 yards per return while the Steelers gain an average of 6.0 yards per return, 31st in the NFL.  We believe the Cardinals will have the edge in field position with JJ Arrington returning kicks on Sunday. 

The factors mentioned above represent a small look into the analysis we put into a game prior to providing our members with our picks to win the Super Bowl.  So who covers the spread in Superbowl XLIII?  Step up your game, become a member of our family and get the answer.  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008 and are poised for another record year.  Join today and start winning tonight!

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com

FiveStarPick.com is working round the clock to gather information on Super Bowl XLIII.  We are analyzing stats, trends, player matchups and injury reports to give our members the best chance to cover against the spread.  Las Vegas sportsbooks currently have the Steelers as 7-point favorites with the total at 46.5.  Today we will be providing you with an interesting article from the Dallas Star that might give you insight to the irony of this Super Bowl Matchup.  The pros at FiveStarPick.com will be previewing this matchup for you later in the week.  Here is what the article said…

“When Bill Cowher walked away from the Pittsburgh Steelers after the 2006 season, there was a scramble among his assistants to replace him.

The Steelers interviewed offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt and offensive line coach Russ Grimm for the vacancy. The Steelers wound up offering the position to Grimm, then retracted it and, in the span of 24 hours, named an outsider, Mike Tomlin, as their head coach.

Having been passed over by the Steelers, Whisenhunt and Grimm knew they couldn’t – and wouldn’t – stay in Pittsburgh. Whisenhunt became the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals that off-season and took Grimm with him.

Imagine the culture shock: Whisenhunt and Grimm were leaving a franchise that annually played in January for a franchise that was annually out of contention by Thanksgiving.

The Steelers share the NFL record with five Lombardi Trophies. The Cardinals are at the other end of the spectrum with a 61-year championship drought, the longest in the league.

But in two years, Whisenhunt has done what few thought possible, capturing an NFC championship with the Cardinals. Standing in the way of Arizona’s first NFL championship since 1947 – his former team, the Steelers.

The Cardinals toppled the Philadelphia Eagles, 32-25, in the NFC title game Sunday, and the Steelers upended the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14, in the AFC title game.

Even before the AFC game began Sunday, Whisenhunt expressed a desire to play the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

“The reason I’m here is because of my time with Pittsburgh,” Whisenhunt said. “I’m very grateful for that.”

The Steelers won four Super Bowls in the 1970s to capture team of the decade acclaim, then played in a Super Bowl in the 1990s and another this decade. They lost to the Cowboys in 1996 and beat the Seattle Seahawks in 2006. Whisenhunt and Grimm both have rings in their safe-deposit boxes commemorating that championship season.

Arizona, on the other hand, has won more playoff games this month (three) than in it had in the franchise’s first 87 years (two). The Cardinals are the most unlikely Super Bowl team since the 1979 Los Angeles Rams, who were the last nine-win team to advance to the NFL title game.

Like the Cardinals, the 1979 Rams won the NFC West with a 9-7 record. Like the Cardinals, the Rams rode a string of upsets to the Super Bowl, winning on the road at Dallas and Tampa Bay.

The Cardinals were underdogs in playoff victories this month over Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia. And like those Rams, the Cardinals will face the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

Since moving to Arizona from St. Louis in 1988, the Cardinals have managed two winning seasons, finishing 9-7 in 1998 and 2008. The Cardinals have nine last-place finishes in Arizona.

“I just want to say the words ‘Arizona Cardinals’ and ‘Super Bowl’ in the same sentence,” said Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner after his four-touchdown pass performance against the Eagles. “I like the way that sounds.”

During that 21-year stretch, the Steelers have won nine division titles and qualified for the playoffs 11 times. Now these two teams square off for NFL supremacy. The Cardinals will attempt to become the first nine-victory team to capture a Super Bowl since the 1967 Green Bay Packers (9-4-1).

The two conference champions bring contrasting styles to the Super Bowl.

The Cardinals finished fourth in the NFL in offense and second in passing. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald all were selected to start in the Pro Bowl.

The Steelers led the NFL in defense for the third time in five seasons. Pittsburgh allowed the fewest yards and points this season and also led the NFL in pass defense. James Harrison was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and he’ll join fellow linebacker James Farrior and safety Troy Polamalu at the Pro Bowl.

But keep an eye on the sidelines in the Super Bowl. Whisenhunt and Grimm have something to prove to their former employer.”

So who covers the spread in Super Bowl XLIII?  Step up your game, become a member of our family and get the answer.  Why not try our service out for 2-days and see if our talent for picking winners exceeds your expectations?  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008.

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com