The pros at FiveStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winner of Super Bowl XLV.  The Greenbay Packers are favored by 3-points over the Pittsburgh Steelers with a total of 45.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The Super Bowl winner has averaged 146.8 yards per game through the first 44 big games while the losing team has averaged just 86.1 YPG. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at YPC averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over 3.96 YPC while the losing team has averaged 3.65 YPC.

The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only eight times in the history of the big game, with this surprisingly taking place the last three years. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 points per games however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.

Fast forward to this season and you’ll see that the Steelers averaged 120.3 YPG during the regular season which was 11th in the league while their 4.1 YPC average was good for a tie for 18th. When you think of Pittsburgh, you think of smash-mouth football but this season’s YPG average was their highest since 2007. It was relatively the same in home/road games but against the NFC, it averaged 141.8 YPG on 4.8 YPC compared to 113.1 YPG on 3.8 YPC against the AFC. The problem was in the redzone where they were just 110-210 (1.9 YPC).

The Packers style on offense is much different and that showed in the rushing numbers. Green Bay averaged only 100.4 YPG on 3.8 YPC, which were 24th and tied for 25th respectively. Green Bay actually averaged more yards per attempt in losses than in wins (4.3 YPC to 3.6 YPC) but the real surprise is the team breakdown. The Packers gained 157 yards on 17 carries against the Redskins this season. They averaged more than 3.9 YPC against only one other team (Philadelphia – 4.0 YPC).

Green Bay was pretty solid defensively against the run as it allowed 114.9 YPG during the regular season which was 18th in the NFL. However, the Packers allowed 4.7 YPC which was tied for 28th in the NFL. That seems like it could be a real problem. Similar to prior years, the Pittsburgh rushing defense was extremely tough to move as the Steelers were the best in the NFL as they allowed only 62.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC. Based on the regular season, Pittsburgh has a clear edge on that side of the ball.

The breakout of running back James Starks against the Eagles has given the Packers the much needed postseason running game. Or has it? Starks has been very average since that game and the Packers are averaging fewer yards per attempt in the postseason than they did in the regular season (3.7 YPC to 3.8 YPC). Pittsburgh is averaging a half-yard more in the playoffs than Green Bay (118.5 YPG to 118 YPG) but is averaging only 3.2 YPC. Facing the Ravens and Jets (5th and 3rd in rushing defense) will do that to a team however.

In the regular season and postseason combined, Pittsburgh gains more YPC than it allows (4.0 YPC to 3.0 YPC), gains more YPC than Green Bay (4.0 YPC to 3.8 YPC) and allows less YPC than Green Bay (3.0 YPC to 4.5 YPC). That is fairly significant. Based on everything above, we have to give the edge to the Steelers in the rushing game but remember last Super Bowl when the Colts won the rushing battle but lost the game so there definitely are exceptions. Will it be another exception this year or will the trend hold true?

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winner in the AFC Championship.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 4-points over the New York Jets with a total of 38.5.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The Steelers are no stranger to this game, participating in the AFC Championship for the fourth time since 2004. On the other side, if the Jets win, they will go to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1969 when Broadway Joe helped upset the Colts, 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The Jets have had some mojo working knocking out Indianapolis and New England in the first two rounds.  Cromartie’s big kickoff return following the go-ahead field goal by Indianapolis gave the Jets excellent field position, which led to a 32-yard field goal at the gun.

All the talk heading into the Divisional Playoff tilt was coming from the Jets’ side as they looked to avenge a 45-3 slaughter in Foxboro on Monday night in Week 13. New York responded to the challenge by eliminating New England, 28-21 as 9-point underdogs capturing its fourth road playoff win in five tries. Mark Sanchez overcame two horrible efforts his previous two starts at Gillette Stadium with a three-touchdown romp as the Pats allowed their most points since Week 11 against Indianapolis (28).

The Steelers came back to shock the Ravens, 31-24 as 3.5-point favorites for the second time this season. Ben Roethlisberger threw two second-half touchdowns, while Rashard Mendenhall’s two-yard plunge with 90 seconds left capped the comeback and gave Pittsburgh its third straight home playoff win. The game went ‘over’ the total of 37.5, as the two teams combined for just 389 yards.

These teams just played each other a little over a month ago at Heinz Field as the Jets upended Steelers, 22-17 as 3.5-point ‘dogs. Troy Polamalu was out with a sprained ankle suffered the week before against Cincinnati as the Steelers’ defense limited the Jets to 277 yards of offense. Sanchez’s bootleg touchdown run on fourth down helped tie the game at 17-17, followed by a Folk field goal and late safety to put the win away for the Jets.

All three of Pittsburgh’s home losses this season came against playoff teams (Jets, Patriots, and Ravens), while owning a 6-3 Against The Spread mark at home. The Jets continue to cash at a frantic rate on the road, putting together a 7-3 Against The Spread record on the highway, including a 6-2 Against The Spread record as an away underdog. Under Ryan, the Jets have gone 14-7 Against The Spread on the road as opposed to 8-8 Against The Spread at home over the last two seasons.

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick.com are looking forward to another profitable day in the NFL and tonight’s division rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will not dissapoint.  Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Ravens as 1-point home favorites with a total of 39.

The Steelers enter this divisional game with the Ravens on a two game losing streak and are currently sitting at 6-4 on the season. The Steelers lost last week, 27-24, in overtime to the Chiefs and it was a game where they out gained Kansas City 515 yards to 282. The Steelers committed 3 turnovers in the loss and deserved to lose.

A huge issue for the Steelers is the health of starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben suffered a concussion last week and was forced to leave the game. As of right now, Roethlisberger is out for tonight’s game and Dixon will start in his place. The Steelers will be without their impact player on defense as Troy Polamalu is officially out of this game with a knee sprain.

The Steelers still have a solid defense allowing just 18 points a game and they are number one in the league against the run allowing just 69 yards per game and 3.4 yards per rush attempt. Through the air the Steelers are only giving up 9.8 yards per completion.

Baltimore sits at 5-5 on the season and cannot afford many more losses if they are to earn a post-season berth in the AFC. The Ravens have lost 5 of their last 7 decisions and were beaten 17-15 last week by Indy. Starting quarterback Joe Flacco is hitting on 65% of his passes with 19 touchdowns, but also has 13 interceptions on the year. The team has had little production from its receiving corps other than Derrick Mason this season. Running back Ray Rice has carried the load of the teams’ rushes on the ground with 5.0 yards a carry average on the season. The Ravens secondary have had its issues giving up big passing plays as the team allows 11.1 yards a completion ranking 21st in the league.

So who covers the spread in this Sunday Night game?  It’s very easy to find out.  Try FiveStarPick.com tonight for only ($19.99) and get all of our Sunday NFL winners as well as tomorrow night’s Monday Night Football play.  See if our talent for picking college and pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business who documents wins and losses and displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley– FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick.com are looking forward to another stellar day in the NFL as we give our members 3 plays on today’s board.  The focus of this preview is the AFC matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs and it has been written by NFL expert analyst Jordan Starling.  Enjoy… 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs — 1 PM/ET

Projected Forecast at Kickoff : Mostly to Partly Cloudy (0% Rain Chance) – High 63 – Winds SSE 5-10 MPH

This matchup on Sunday should prove to be a major one-sided affair. Pittsburgh will roll into Kansas City Sunday to take on a dismal Chiefs team that has seen the bad go to worse in just a week’s time. Just a short time after RB Larry Johnson was released from the team, leading Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe learned that he will begin the first of a four game suspension handed down by the NFL for violating the league drug policy. To make matters worse, LB Mike Vrabel will be sidelined with a Knee Injury he incurred @ Oakland last week.

Coming into this week’s matchup the Chiefs are ranked 30^th overall in the NFL in Total Offense averaging only 264 yards per game. Matt Cassel won’t get much help improving on that number without star WR Dwayne Bowe in the Lineup for Sundays Game against the Steelers, whose stingy 2^nd ranked defense only allows 275 YPG, but will play without S Troy Polamalu and DE Travis Kirschke.

While the offense carries their struggles, the Defense doesn’t prove to be much better for Kansas City. They come into this game giving up 376 YPG and will have to find someone good enough to step into the shoes of injured LB Mike Vrabel. The Steelers 9^th ranked Offense continues to produce under QB Ben Roethlisberger, and with a bad Kansas City defense gone to worse, look for the Steelers to continue this trend. I look for Pittsburgh’s offense to eclipse the 400 yard mark this week with big outings from WR Heinz Ward, Santonio Holmes and RB Rashard Mendenhall.

Something to keep in mind is Kansas City’s last home game came about a month ago when they hosted the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers destroyed the Chiefs 37-7 in a game in which Kansas City would have been considered “full strength”. The Steelers are ranked higher in Total Offense & Total Defense than the Chargers (18 T.O & 14 T.D).

 *Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in their Last 5 Home Games

*Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in their Last 10 Games on Grass

*Kansas City is 1-3 ATS at Home this Season.

*Kansas City is 0-4 SU at Home this Season

Something has to give in this matchup. With the absence of WR Dwayne Bowe and LB Mike Vrabel, I think an already bad Kansas City team will unravel.

Jordan Starling – Starling Sports