The pros at FiveStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winner of Super Bowl XLV.  The Greenbay Packers are favored by 3-points over the Pittsburgh Steelers with a total of 45.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The Super Bowl winner has averaged 146.8 yards per game through the first 44 big games while the losing team has averaged just 86.1 YPG. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at YPC averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over 3.96 YPC while the losing team has averaged 3.65 YPC.

The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only eight times in the history of the big game, with this surprisingly taking place the last three years. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 points per games however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.

Fast forward to this season and you’ll see that the Steelers averaged 120.3 YPG during the regular season which was 11th in the league while their 4.1 YPC average was good for a tie for 18th. When you think of Pittsburgh, you think of smash-mouth football but this season’s YPG average was their highest since 2007. It was relatively the same in home/road games but against the NFC, it averaged 141.8 YPG on 4.8 YPC compared to 113.1 YPG on 3.8 YPC against the AFC. The problem was in the redzone where they were just 110-210 (1.9 YPC).

The Packers style on offense is much different and that showed in the rushing numbers. Green Bay averaged only 100.4 YPG on 3.8 YPC, which were 24th and tied for 25th respectively. Green Bay actually averaged more yards per attempt in losses than in wins (4.3 YPC to 3.6 YPC) but the real surprise is the team breakdown. The Packers gained 157 yards on 17 carries against the Redskins this season. They averaged more than 3.9 YPC against only one other team (Philadelphia – 4.0 YPC).

Green Bay was pretty solid defensively against the run as it allowed 114.9 YPG during the regular season which was 18th in the NFL. However, the Packers allowed 4.7 YPC which was tied for 28th in the NFL. That seems like it could be a real problem. Similar to prior years, the Pittsburgh rushing defense was extremely tough to move as the Steelers were the best in the NFL as they allowed only 62.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC. Based on the regular season, Pittsburgh has a clear edge on that side of the ball.

The breakout of running back James Starks against the Eagles has given the Packers the much needed postseason running game. Or has it? Starks has been very average since that game and the Packers are averaging fewer yards per attempt in the postseason than they did in the regular season (3.7 YPC to 3.8 YPC). Pittsburgh is averaging a half-yard more in the playoffs than Green Bay (118.5 YPG to 118 YPG) but is averaging only 3.2 YPC. Facing the Ravens and Jets (5th and 3rd in rushing defense) will do that to a team however.

In the regular season and postseason combined, Pittsburgh gains more YPC than it allows (4.0 YPC to 3.0 YPC), gains more YPC than Green Bay (4.0 YPC to 3.8 YPC) and allows less YPC than Green Bay (3.0 YPC to 4.5 YPC). That is fairly significant. Based on everything above, we have to give the edge to the Steelers in the rushing game but remember last Super Bowl when the Colts won the rushing battle but lost the game so there definitely are exceptions. Will it be another exception this year or will the trend hold true?

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

As the NFL football season nears its close for the 2008-2009 season, the pros at FiveStarPick.com feel certain that Super Bowl XLIII will be more exciting than the sports writers, pundits and commentators would lead you to believe.  Las Vegas sportsbooks are holding the line for Pittsburgh at -7 with the total fluctuating between 46.5 and 47.  The world is talking about the usual suspects like Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner, Rothlisberger, Parker and Ward, but sometimes it’s the lesser know factors that can make a difference in determining the “against the spread” winner in a Superbowl.

Quarterbacks…

Over the last 42 years of the Super Bowl, only 15 quarterbacks had passer ratings better than 100 during the regular season and into the playoffs.  Most recently, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0) both surpassed this stat.  This season, Roethlisberger had a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner had a passer rating of 111.9.  If you are only looking at the skill position of the Quarterback and the ability to make throws under pressure, you have to give the edge to the Arizona Cardinals.

Pass Rush…

The question we need answered here is which team will be able to apply the most pressure to the opposing quarterback.  When you start thinking about who will have the most sacks, you automatically think the Steelers, right?  The media has been sucking on the left teet of the Steeler defense for so long, that you would never know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2.  Not a huge difference, but Pittsburgh and its defense have forever been portrayed as the best team in the league at rushing the passer.  Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks.  In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS.  After studying the sack stats, these two teams appear to be evenly matched.

Does Defense Win Championships…

In the last 4 Super Bowls this statement has rung true as all four Super Bowl winners have allowed an average of only 15.5 ppg.  In the last eight Super Bowls,  winners have allowed an average of only 17 ppg.  And if you look back at all the Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 out of 42 times.

Now, when we talk about offense, the winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times.  Having said that, the last Super Bowl Champion to score 30 points or more in this game was in Super Bowl XXVIII when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills, 30-14.  If you look to history, defenses are in fact what has won the majority of Super Bowls. We give the defensive edge to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Who Is Better In The Red Zone…

Many bettors fail to study REDZONE performance when handicapping the Super Bowl.  They look at yardage and points, but fail to see where these numbers come from.  Red zone scoring is where games are won and lost and Arizona is only 9th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent per trip. The Steelers aren’t much better at 15th in the league with a 55.1 scoring percentage.  Where the difference lies in these stats is that the Cardinals have scored 72 more red zone points that the Steelers while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Defensively, the Steelers were #1 in the NFL allowing red zone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time.  Arizona allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was 27th in the NFL.  Arizona allowed 124 more points in the red zone than their Super Bowl opponent.  We give the red zone advantage to Pittsburgh.

Does Field Position Matter… 

Field position is one of those stats that is pretty easy to figure out.  A shorter field makes it easier on the offense to score points and harder on the defense to defend against points being scored.  For this reason, special teams always play an important role in a Super Bowl.  These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st out of 32 in net punting and Pittsburgh finished 29th.  The Cardinals however have the edge in punt returning, gaining 7.2 yards per return while the Steelers gain an average of 6.0 yards per return, 31st in the NFL.  We believe the Cardinals will have the edge in field position with JJ Arrington returning kicks on Sunday. 

The factors mentioned above represent a small look into the analysis we put into a game prior to providing our members with our picks to win the Super Bowl.  So who covers the spread in Superbowl XLIII?  Step up your game, become a member of our family and get the answer.  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008 and are poised for another record year.  Join today and start winning tonight!

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com