As the NFL football season nears its close for the 2008-2009 season, the pros at FiveStarPick.com feel certain that Super Bowl XLIII will be more exciting than the sports writers, pundits and commentators would lead you to believe.  Las Vegas sportsbooks are holding the line for Pittsburgh at -7 with the total fluctuating between 46.5 and 47.  The world is talking about the usual suspects like Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner, Rothlisberger, Parker and Ward, but sometimes it’s the lesser know factors that can make a difference in determining the “against the spread” winner in a Superbowl.

Quarterbacks…

Over the last 42 years of the Super Bowl, only 15 quarterbacks had passer ratings better than 100 during the regular season and into the playoffs.  Most recently, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0) both surpassed this stat.  This season, Roethlisberger had a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner had a passer rating of 111.9.  If you are only looking at the skill position of the Quarterback and the ability to make throws under pressure, you have to give the edge to the Arizona Cardinals.

Pass Rush…

The question we need answered here is which team will be able to apply the most pressure to the opposing quarterback.  When you start thinking about who will have the most sacks, you automatically think the Steelers, right?  The media has been sucking on the left teet of the Steeler defense for so long, that you would never know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2.  Not a huge difference, but Pittsburgh and its defense have forever been portrayed as the best team in the league at rushing the passer.  Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks.  In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS.  After studying the sack stats, these two teams appear to be evenly matched.

Does Defense Win Championships…

In the last 4 Super Bowls this statement has rung true as all four Super Bowl winners have allowed an average of only 15.5 ppg.  In the last eight Super Bowls,  winners have allowed an average of only 17 ppg.  And if you look back at all the Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 out of 42 times.

Now, when we talk about offense, the winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times.  Having said that, the last Super Bowl Champion to score 30 points or more in this game was in Super Bowl XXVIII when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills, 30-14.  If you look to history, defenses are in fact what has won the majority of Super Bowls. We give the defensive edge to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Who Is Better In The Red Zone…

Many bettors fail to study REDZONE performance when handicapping the Super Bowl.  They look at yardage and points, but fail to see where these numbers come from.  Red zone scoring is where games are won and lost and Arizona is only 9th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent per trip. The Steelers aren’t much better at 15th in the league with a 55.1 scoring percentage.  Where the difference lies in these stats is that the Cardinals have scored 72 more red zone points that the Steelers while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Defensively, the Steelers were #1 in the NFL allowing red zone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time.  Arizona allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was 27th in the NFL.  Arizona allowed 124 more points in the red zone than their Super Bowl opponent.  We give the red zone advantage to Pittsburgh.

Does Field Position Matter… 

Field position is one of those stats that is pretty easy to figure out.  A shorter field makes it easier on the offense to score points and harder on the defense to defend against points being scored.  For this reason, special teams always play an important role in a Super Bowl.  These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st out of 32 in net punting and Pittsburgh finished 29th.  The Cardinals however have the edge in punt returning, gaining 7.2 yards per return while the Steelers gain an average of 6.0 yards per return, 31st in the NFL.  We believe the Cardinals will have the edge in field position with JJ Arrington returning kicks on Sunday. 

The factors mentioned above represent a small look into the analysis we put into a game prior to providing our members with our picks to win the Super Bowl.  So who covers the spread in Superbowl XLIII?  Step up your game, become a member of our family and get the answer.  With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net.  Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008 and are poised for another record year.  Join today and start winning tonight!

Jimmy the Geek – FiveStarPick.com