FiveStarPick.com is so excited that the NFL Divisional Playoffs are here. Las Vegas sports books list the Titans as 3-point favorites with the total at 34.5.
Preview Courtesy of VegasInsider.com
A year ago, the Titans were able to make the postseason thanks to Vince Young’s heroics and an Indianapolis squad that took it easy in Week 17. Yet they were expected to finish third in the AFC South in 2008 behind the Colts and Jaguars by many experts.
Baltimore really didn’t know what to expect this season, losing Steve McNair and Jonathan Ogden to retirement after a 5-11 campaign in 2007. Adding more uncertainty was the decision to throw rookie signal caller Joe Flacco into the fire as the starter.
Now both clubs are just three victories away from claiming the Lombardi Trophy. They’ll butt heads on Saturday in Nashville for a 4:30 p.m. EST showdown on CBS.
Rookie head coach John Harbaugh didn’t have to rely on his rookie quarterback to win the game in Miami last week as his defense dominant. The Ravens never stopped Chad Pennington last Sunday, sacking him three times and forcing four interceptions. Plus, Baltimore forced a fumble to bring its takeaway total to five. To give you an idea of how impressive that is, Miami led the league in giveaways by turning the ball over just 13 times during the regular season.
We shouldn’t be too surprised by the Ravens’ prowess on defense. After all they ranked fifth in the NFL against the pass (224.0 yards per game) and the best squad defending the run (52.0 YPG). Ed Reed, who scored on one of his two interceptions last week, leads the league with nine picks for the year.
Flacco performed reasonably well in his first playoff start, completing nine of 23 passes for 135 yards and not getting sacked by the Dolphins. It was still a drop off from his regular season stats of connected on 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards with 14 scores and 12 interceptions.
While his numbers are solid, VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Andy Iskoe believes they don’t tell the whole story for Flacco…especially against playoff squads. “All 5 of Baltimore’s losses this season came to Playoff teams with 4 of the losses to teams that had Byes last week (twice to Pittsburgh, once to the Giants, once to Tennessee) and the fifth loss was to 12-4 Indianapolis,” says Iskoe. “Yet the Ravens actually played the tougher schedule as their foes were 132-121-3 while Tennessee’s foes were a combined 117-138-1.” He completed 122 of 206 passes for 1,280 yards with more picks (nine) than scores (five) when he faced teams that made the postseason.
The plus side for Raven fans is that they have the No. 2 running game in the league, averaging 151.0 YPG on the ground this year. Willis McGahee only played in 13 games this year but still picked up 671 yards on 170 carries and scoring seven times. Le’Ron McClain exploded onto the scene for Baltimore by snapping up 3.9 yards per carry and leading the team with 10 rushing touchdowns.
Jeff Fisher was able to get his Titans back to the playoffs for the second straight year thanks to a defense that stepped up. Tennessee gave up 93.9 YPG on the ground, while surrendering 199.8 passing YPG.
Tennessee was able to put up those numbers by applying pressure in the trenches and in the secondary. Albert Haynesworth (51 tackles, 8 ½ sacks) Kyle Vanden Bosch (24 tackles, 4 ½ sacks) found their ways into the opposition’s backfield. Meanwhile, Cortland Finnegan (five interceptions, 17 defended passes) and Michael Griffin (seven picks, 11 defended passes) are quick to shut down receivers.
On the offensive side of the ball, the biggest change for the Titans was the ability to throw the ball with Kerry Collins under center. Collins took over in Week 2 of the year after Vince Young went down with a sprained knee. He averaged 167.3 passing YPG this season with 12 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Compare that to Young’s nine scores to 17 picks in 2007. Collins’ could have some issues though as center Kevin Mawae (elbow) is “out” for this Saturday’s match.
Tennessee received a jolt to its running game in drafting Chris Johnson out of East Carolina, running for 1,228 yards and nine touchdowns. Former starter LenDale White was able to bite his lip and accept his new role as primarily a short-yardage back by rushing for 773 yards and 15 scores.
Normally you’ll give the home squad the advantage in this setup. Yet the Ravens have proven that they can win away from M&T Bank Stadium this year by posting a 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS mark. They also saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 in road tilts this season.
Baltimore will have its work cut out this weekend visiting the Titans. Tennessee is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this year. The ‘over’ is 5-2-1 for Fisher’s squad at LP Field as well.
These squads faced off back on Oct. 5 where Tennessee won as a one-point road fave against the Ravens, 13-10. But Iskoe points out that that final score is a bit misleading. “When the teams met earlier this season in Baltimore, the Ravens led 10-3 after 3 quarters before the Titans scored the final 10 points to win 13-10. Yet Baltimore outgained Tennessee 285-210. Neither QB was sacked but each tossed a pair of interceptions. These teams are evenly matched with each team’s strength being the defense.”
The Ravens have been a solid fade against teams from the AFC South, posting a 4-7 SU and 2-9 ATS record against that division since 2005.
Visiting teams are 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings of these former AFC Central rivals.
So who covers the spread in this NFL Divisional Playoff matchup? It’s time to step up your game, become a member of our family and find out. Why not try our service out for 2-days and see if our talent for picking winners exceeds your expectations? With over 2300 active members, you owe it to yourself to find out why FiveStarPick.com is the most accurate sports handicapping service on the net. Our dime bettors won nearly $100K in 2008.
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