The pros at FiveStarPick.com have been crunching stats, trends, key matchups and injury reports to give our members today’s winner of Super Bowl XLV.  The Greenbay Packers are favored by 3-points over the Pittsburgh Steelers with a total of 45.  This line is DEAD WRONG!

The Super Bowl winner has averaged 146.8 yards per game through the first 44 big games while the losing team has averaged just 86.1 YPG. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at YPC averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over 3.96 YPC while the losing team has averaged 3.65 YPC.

The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only eight times in the history of the big game, with this surprisingly taking place the last three years. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 points per games however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.

Fast forward to this season and you’ll see that the Steelers averaged 120.3 YPG during the regular season which was 11th in the league while their 4.1 YPC average was good for a tie for 18th. When you think of Pittsburgh, you think of smash-mouth football but this season’s YPG average was their highest since 2007. It was relatively the same in home/road games but against the NFC, it averaged 141.8 YPG on 4.8 YPC compared to 113.1 YPG on 3.8 YPC against the AFC. The problem was in the redzone where they were just 110-210 (1.9 YPC).

The Packers style on offense is much different and that showed in the rushing numbers. Green Bay averaged only 100.4 YPG on 3.8 YPC, which were 24th and tied for 25th respectively. Green Bay actually averaged more yards per attempt in losses than in wins (4.3 YPC to 3.6 YPC) but the real surprise is the team breakdown. The Packers gained 157 yards on 17 carries against the Redskins this season. They averaged more than 3.9 YPC against only one other team (Philadelphia – 4.0 YPC).

Green Bay was pretty solid defensively against the run as it allowed 114.9 YPG during the regular season which was 18th in the NFL. However, the Packers allowed 4.7 YPC which was tied for 28th in the NFL. That seems like it could be a real problem. Similar to prior years, the Pittsburgh rushing defense was extremely tough to move as the Steelers were the best in the NFL as they allowed only 62.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC. Based on the regular season, Pittsburgh has a clear edge on that side of the ball.

The breakout of running back James Starks against the Eagles has given the Packers the much needed postseason running game. Or has it? Starks has been very average since that game and the Packers are averaging fewer yards per attempt in the postseason than they did in the regular season (3.7 YPC to 3.8 YPC). Pittsburgh is averaging a half-yard more in the playoffs than Green Bay (118.5 YPG to 118 YPG) but is averaging only 3.2 YPC. Facing the Ravens and Jets (5th and 3rd in rushing defense) will do that to a team however.

In the regular season and postseason combined, Pittsburgh gains more YPC than it allows (4.0 YPC to 3.0 YPC), gains more YPC than Green Bay (4.0 YPC to 3.8 YPC) and allows less YPC than Green Bay (3.0 YPC to 4.5 YPC). That is fairly significant. Based on everything above, we have to give the edge to the Steelers in the rushing game but remember last Super Bowl when the Colts won the rushing battle but lost the game so there definitely are exceptions. Will it be another exception this year or will the trend hold true?

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend and injury report on this game to provide our members with two winning plays tonight.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking NFL pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays along with our last 5 years results, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…our system just wins games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick are excited about tonight’s Monday Night Football plays as the Green Bay Packers lace em up on the road at the Chicago Bears.  Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Packers as 3-point road favorties with a total of 46.5.  We think this line is DEAD WRONG.

Eight teams entered Week 3 with 2-0 records and four of them were handed losses on Sunday. Tonight from Soldier Field, one more club will join that group as Chicago (1-1 against the spread) welcomes their rival Green Bay (2-0 Against The Spread) in a NFC North battle.

The Bears received a questionable win over Detroit (19-14) in Week 1 when Calvin Johnson’s late score for the Lions was reversed. Despite the lucky victory, Chicago went on the road the very next week and stunned Dallas 27-20 as a seven-point underdog. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (649 yards, 5 TDs) seems more relaxed so far and he only has one interception through two games, after tossing 26 last year.

Defensively, Smith’s squad has also looked sharp. The unit has only allowed 289 YPG and they’ve forced six turnovers. With all due respect to the Lions and Cowboys, the Packers’ offense is averaging a league best 30.5 points per game and will be a much bigger test for the Bears tonight. Chicago picked up defensive end Julius Peppers in the offseason to bolster its pass rush but the defense only has two sacks after two games.

Underdogs posted a 10-5 Against The Spread record on Sunday and that included outright home ‘dog wins by Kansas City (+3), St. Louis (+4.5) and Seattle (+4).

Can Chicago join the mix and improve to 3-0 like Pittsburgh and Kansas City? Or will the Bears get exposed and look like the Texans and Buccaneers did yesterday? We’d include the Saints and Dolphins in that mix, but the pair played decent plus they lost to legit teams in the Falcons and Jets respectively.

While those numbers are telling, keep in mind that Chicago has played well on MNF under Lovie, going 4-1 in five appearances. Plus, the Packers are just 3-8 in their last 11 under the MNF lights.

The total for tonight is hovering between 45 and 46 and like most other primetime affairs, bettors should expect it to rise by kickoff. Green Bay has shown that it can score (34, 27) this season, but the ‘under’ has still produced a 2-0 mark. The Bears have a 1-1 total record.

Green Bay has gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings against Chicago, which includes last year’s sweep (21-14, 21-15). All four games went ‘under’ the number. It should also be noted that Rodgers has been the starting QB for the Packers in all four of these affairs and ironically the lone loss (17-20, OT) came in 2008 at Soldier Field, which was on a Monday as well.

This game is not an easy game to handicap, but the pros at FiveStarPick.com have broken down every stat, trend, injury report and weather forcast on this game to provide our members with a winning play.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for only ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking college and pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business that documents our last 30 plays, then displays them on our homepage for all to see.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick are coming off a terrible Saturday in College Football, but plan to get back on track today with two NFL plays on opening weekend.  The focus of this preview is our play on the 4pm game between the Packers and the Eagles.  Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Packers as 3-point road favorties with a total of 38. 

The Packers are coming off a 10-6 season and first-round playoff loss at Arizona, while the Eagles have moved on from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Kolb.

Green Bay has been a great road favorite going 8-4 Against The Spread since 2007, including going 4-2 against the spread last season.  The Packers have outscored their opponents by 10 ppg, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.  In addition, the Packers have averaged 28.8 ppg under Rodgers, the third-best output in the league last season. The Cheeseheads have also been a great play in their openers, going 3-1 Against The Spread, while compiling a 4-0 Against The Spread record in road openers.

Philadelphia has made the playoffs three of the last four seasons under McNabb, but have not seen a Super Bowl since 2004. The Eagles play the role of a home dog today, a spot they have seen only twice in the last three seasons. The first two times they were in this spot were not good for Philadelphia backers, as the Eagles lost to the Cowboys (2007) and Saints (2009) each by over 21 points. Since 2006, the Eagles are 3-1 Against The Spread in season openers, with the only loss coming at Lambeau Field in 2007, 16-13.

The home team has won each of the previous five meetings between these two teams dating back to January 2004 when the Eagles beat the Packers in the second round of the playoffs, 20-17 in overtime.

So who covers the spread in this NFL season opener?  It’s very easy to find out.  Try FiveStarPick.com today for just ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking college and pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business who documents wins and losses and displays them on our homepage for all to witness.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick.com are looking forward to another winning day in the NFL postseason. Yesterday we gave our members the Jets +3, and today we are hot on the NFC Wildcard game between the Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals.  Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Packers as 1.5-point road favorites with a total of 48.

Green Bay (11-5 SU, 11-4-1 Against The Spread) comes into the playoffs winning seven of its eight games and going 7-0-1 against the spread. Last week the Packers came into a meaningless game in Arizona and totally dismantled the Cardinals 33-7 as three-point road underdogs. Aaron Rodgers connected on 21-of-26 throws for 235 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions.  What’s interesting is that since the Pack’s loss to the Bucs, Rodgers has a 14/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. As a matter of fact, he has not been picked off in seven of his last eight games, and has only thrown 7 interceptions all year.

Rodgers has two prime targets in All-Pro wideouts Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Jennings had 68 receptions for 1,113 and four touchdowns during the regular season, while Driver caught 70 balls for 1,061 yards and six scores. Rodgers also has a veteran in the backfield in RB Ryan Grant. Grant has emerged in 2009 with 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 4.2 yards-per-carry.

Arizona (10-6 straight up, 9-7 Against The Spread) will look to Kurt Warner today to lead their team back to the promise land.  Warner played just a few series last week, but completed 4-of-6 passes for 31 yards without no touchdowns or interceptions.  Warner made 15 starts this year and threw for 3,758 yards with a 27/14 TD-INT ratio. 

The All-Pro veteran QB will need to step up his game today, because Arizona has been plagued with key injuries. Arizona CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has a knee contusion that limited him in practice this week, but he has been upgraded to “probable.”  Anquan Boldin remains “questionable” and hasn’t practiced all week.  He is considered a game-time decision.

Boldin’s absence would be a big loss for the Cardinal air attack. This year, Boldin accumulated 85 receptions for 1,029 yards and five TDs. His dynamic partner, Larry Fitzgerald, had 97 catches for 1,019 yards and 13 TDs.

Arizona’s ground attack has improved with the addition of Beanie Wells. Wells and Tim Hightower have combined to rush for 1,391 yards and 15 TDs.

So who covers the spread in this NFC Wildcard game?  It’s very easy to find out.  Try FiveStarPick.com tonight for just ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business who documents wins and losses and displays them on our homepage for all to witness.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com

The pros at FiveStarPick.com will be giving our members the winner of tonight’s Monday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Green Bay Packers.  Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Packers as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 43.

The Packers (7-4 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread) didn’t look so good a few weeks back sitting at 4-4 after dropping a game to the winless Bucs.  It’s strange that they struggled so much as their offense was in the Top 10 in scoring (26.9 points per game), yards (382.0 yards per game) and third-down conversions (45.7 percent). So what was the tipping point? The Packer O Line. The Pack have allowed more sacks than any team in the NFL (44).  Maybe Aaron Rodgers wasn’t taking his O Line out for steak dinners on Sunday nights.

During their three-game winning streak, they’ve allowed just eight sacks.  Now Rogers has time to check down his receivers and has completed 71 percent of his passes for 881 yards and 6 TDs with no INTs. In additon, Ryan Grant has compiled 365 rushing yards and two scores on 81 carries during the stretch.  The tandem will need to be on top of their game to beat the Ravens, who have one of the league’s best defenses.

The Ravens (6-5 SU, 6-4-1 Against the spread) for the last few years have been all about defense.  They rank fourth in scoring (17.1 PPG), sixth against the run (97.6 YPG) and seventh in interceptions (12). What’s worth noting, however, is that in 2009 Baltimore has been torched by the top NFL quarterbacks.  Brett Favre threw for 278 yards and three scores, Peyton Manning threw for 299 yards and a touchdown, and Philip Rivers roasted them for 436 yards and 2 TDs. 

What has really plagued the Ravens this year is a lack of offense.  Joe Flacco was excellent last Sunday night in a 20-17 overtime win against the Steelers, completing 23 of 35 passes for 289 yards and a touchdown, but the young pro is completing only 64 percent of his throws for season.

This could prove problematic for the Ravens as the Packers are giving up a stingy 192.5 YPG through the air and have 18 interceptions…third in the NFL. Charles Woodson has been shutting everyone down in the last three starts, picking off three passes and forcing three fumbles.

Something else that could cause problems is the weather forecast. The current report from Green Bay is that it will be 30 degrees with 60 percent chance of snow showers.

So who covers the spread in tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup?  It’s very easy to find out.  Try FiveStarPick.com tonight for just ($19.99) and see if our talent for picking college and pro football winners exceeds your expectations.  We are the only sports handicapping service in the business who documents wins and losses and displays them on our homepage for all to witness.  It’s because we have nothing to hide…we just win games against the spread.  Join our family today and start your winning streak tonight.

Rick Riley – FiveStarPick.com